How we got here, why Covid19 is NOT like seasonal flu and why the measures matter

We have had several replies on the PMRGCAuk forums in general from people who think this is much ado about nothing. We know there are people who don't see the importance of hand washing, of social distancing and avoiding crowded places. And even more so for the members of this and other patient communities who are distressed at the concept of being separated from their grandchildren for 3 months or more and asking out loud "Would it be SO bad to have a hug?"

So I am posting this quite simple explanation in response to a request from someone else on the forum. I first posted it on the HealthUnlocked forum

FOR THOSE THAT ARE NOT QUITE GETTING IT YET.

Copied and pasted from elsewhere:

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Its RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward:

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (where we would all have some natural or acquired immunity) took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way so that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social distancing/isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next?

Be smart folks... and listen to the scientific advice.

#flattenthecurve. Wash your hands and stay home if possible..... share this to those that just are not catching on

And here is another fairly blunt comment by a doctor from another doctor on his blog:

Dear Readers. Here is a public service announcement from a wise friend of mine.

"Let’s talk social isolation, if you or a family member have symptoms.

No, not the details. Look on the NHS website for that.

More that I’ve become aware of quite a few people who aren’t ACTUALLY isolating themselves. Because, apparently, they couldn’t have the Coronavirus. Despite their cough. Despite their fever.

Do you know what an R0 is? It’s a statistical measure of contagion rates. The Coronavirus has an R0 of about 3-4. So each infected person is likely to infect 3-4 other people.

Now. If you DO have it and you DON’T isolate yourself completely, not going out, you run the risk of infecting people you walk past, people you queue behind in the shops, that person you so politely danced round in the shop doorway, anybody you encounter. Every single one you infect has a 5% chance (probably more) of ending up on the ITU in your local hospital. Yes, on a ventilator.

EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.

Not only that, but given current mortality data, somewhere between 15-50% of the people ending up on ITU will die. Yes. They’ll die.

So if you think popping out won’t matter, you’re wrong. You might just cause someone’s death.

So stop being so ****** selfish. Isolate yourselves properly. Follow the guidance properly."

Credit to the amazing Dr Russell Brown.

Between the two, I hope no-one can claim they didn't know the risks - to themself and to others.

Here in Italy someone turned up at a hospital last week for a nose op. To avoid losing the appointment, they neglected to say they had a cough and fever (though you do have to ask how the hospital missed that) and that they worked in a ski resort where they had been in contact with Covid19 +ve people. He had his op - but as a result the surgeon, anaesthetist and a nurse are all now infected and unable to work and potentially at risk of dying - a GP died yesterday, 52 years old and no underlying illnesses.

This stuff isn't a game.

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