Possible herpes symptoms?

I (34 yo male) had a protected encounter with a stranger (female) of unknown status on August 20th. I fingered her then we had vaginal sex with a condom for around 5 minutes or less. During vaginal sex I noticed the condom was a bit dry. So, in order to prevent breakage, I disposed of it, switched to a new condom and applied lube to the outside of it. We then proceeded to vaginal sex again for between 5 and 10 minutes. I pulled out and ejaculated inside condom then disposed of it.

Around 3 weeks later, I experienced what I perceived as a potential symptom of an outbreak on my penis head. The night before I had dry masturbated and went to sleep without washing my penis (I usually wash after masturbation). The next day I noticed a swelling on my foreskin, around the area where my thumb would be during masturbation. I've experienced this before due to dry masturbation so I wasn't too alarmed. The swelling was invisible when the foreskin was stretched. However, it's what accompanied it this time that worries me. I noticed a small red dot/cut/abrasion just under the rim of my penis head. I took several photos throughout the day and it seemed to change in appearance throughout, from red to pink with dry skin around it.

I've attached pictures below:

These were taken across 2 days with dry skin and moisturized (with lotion) skin.

There is no pain, itchiness, or tingling associated with these symptoms. Only painless skin manifestations. I had to stretch the skin and zoom in to see it. The swelling went down within the day. The red dot seemed to heal completely within 2 or 3 days.

I panicked and immediately scheduled an appointment with my dermatologist a few days later. I was able to get seen 3 or 4 days after these symptoms. By this time the symptoms were completely gone so all I had was pictures to show the dermatologist. He looked and said it seems to be due to friction and the red dot could be an abrasion from the dry masturbation that preceded this the night before. He also looked at my penis and said he doesn't see anything.

This did little to calm my anxiety honestly. So, on September 16th (exactly 27 days after this encounter), I decided to get full panel std testing and included the hsv2 igg blood test. I only tested for hsv 2 because I know have hsv 1 and have gotten an outbreak on my lips several years ago. Everything came back negative. Igg value for hsv 2 was 0.12.

I know the recommended testing window for hsv is at least 3 months after potential exposure. I just wanted to get a baseline for now and will retest at 12 weeks. My last encounter (also a single protected instance) was over a year prior to this so I know the current results are conclusive of no existing infection.

My question to you all is, looking at the images, does the tiny red dot/cut/abrasion seem reminiscent of a herpes sore? Perhaps a painless ruptured blister that quickly resolved?

What are the odds that I've contracted hsv 2 from this single protected encounter?

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